Europa League seedings do not separate best and worst

Due to basing the seedings for the Europa League draws on six matches within uneven groupings which were created by the UEFA coefficient systems, the seedings for today’s Europa League draw do not actually separate the best and worst remaining teams into two separate groups. Using a longer term rating system, the Euro Club Index, reveals that the seeded and unseeded groups both contain some of the best teams left in the competition and the absolute best trio left in the competition are all unseeded.

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Did the fixture computer cost David Moyes his job?

Updating a metric like the Seasonal Comparative Results metric SCoRe on a weekly basis provides all sorts of insights. I know for example that West Ham’s current improvement is almost entirely due to results away from home as they took 0 points last season from the away matches they have played to date which this season have produced 11 points. The Hammers’ total improvement is 14 compared to the equivalent fixtures in 2013/2014.  Similarly Manchester United’s poorer performance this term is due to being worse away from home than David Moyes’ United were. However, the biggest thing to strike me on United is that if they had played their fixtures in the same order last season as they have this, they would have been top of last season’s Premier League after 15 matches.

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Guest post: Steve Lawrence assesses the Premier League predictions

The Scoreboard Journalism challenge for points and place predictions from prominent media, stats modellers, fans and online publishers for both the Eredivisie and the Premier League has attracted considerable interest and @JamesWGrayson has been publishing regular assessments of how the predictions have been doing.

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Current Champions League team most likely to win Europa League

The Europa League kicks off on Thursday, 18 September and at this stage there is less chance of an eventual Europa League winner coming from one of the 48 teams starting the competition than there is from one of the 32 teams currently competing in the Champions League.

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Big Spanish clubs almost certain of CL last 16

The Champions League kicks off this week and the big three Spanish clubs in Euro Club Index terms are all but certain of making the second round of the competition. The fourth Spanish team, Athletic Bilbao, have profited more than most from the draw which has increased their chances of joining the other La Liga clubs in the last 16.

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Predicting the Premier League

At the beginning of last season, I collected 26 pre-season predictions for the Premier League with one half coming from a variety of statistical models and one half from the experts in the media. As expected, the statistical models came out on top as a group and the best individual prediction also came from that group, with blogger James Grayson‘s  model based on TSR (Total Shot Ratio) and PDO (a luck proxy). The champion of the subjective predictions was NBC’s Joe Prince-Wright who beat all but two of the statistical models and finished far ahead of the rest of the experts. For this season, this process has been expanded to ask a number of new questions about predicting the Premier League and the number of forecasts collected has more than doubled to 56.

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Croatia Group H favourites ahead of Italy

Euro 2016 qualification begins this weekend and two of the top seeded teams in the draw, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy, are not the favourites to win their groups according to the Infostrada Sports’ National Team Ranking. Six of the nine groups have an overwhelming favourite to be group winner and only one of the groups looks truly competitive at this stage. We finish our analysis of the groups by looking at E to I. Our previous article analysing Groups A to D can be read here: http://infostradalive.com/2014/09/03/analyse-this-overwhelming-favourites-in-groups-a-to-d/

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