Current Champions League team most likely to win Europa League

The Europa League kicks off on Thursday, 18 September and at this stage there is less chance of an eventual Europa League winner coming from one of the 48 teams starting the competition than there is from one of the 32 teams currently competing in the Champions League.

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Big Spanish clubs almost certain of CL last 16

The Champions League kicks off this week and the big three Spanish clubs in Euro Club Index terms are all but certain of making the second round of the competition. The fourth Spanish team, Athletic Bilbao, have profited more than most from the draw which has increased their chances of joining the other La Liga clubs in the last 16.

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Predicting the Premier League

At the beginning of last season, I collected 26 pre-season predictions for the Premier League with one half coming from a variety of statistical models and one half from the experts in the media. As expected, the statistical models came out on top as a group and the best individual prediction also came from that group, with blogger James Grayson‘s  model based on TSR (Total Shot Ratio) and PDO (a luck proxy). The champion of the subjective predictions was NBC’s Joe Prince-Wright who beat all but two of the statistical models and finished far ahead of the rest of the experts. For this season, this process has been expanded to ask a number of new questions about predicting the Premier League and the number of forecasts collected has more than doubled to 56.

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Croatia Group H favourites ahead of Italy

Euro 2016 qualification begins this weekend and two of the top seeded teams in the draw, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy, are not the favourites to win their groups according to the Infostrada Sports’ National Team Ranking. Six of the nine groups have an overwhelming favourite to be group winner and only one of the groups looks truly competitive at this stage. We finish our analysis of the groups by looking at E to I. Our previous article analysing Groups A to D can be read here: http://infostradalive.com/2014/09/03/analyse-this-overwhelming-favourites-in-groups-a-to-d/

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Overwhelming favourites in Groups A to D, Scotland surprise qualifiers?

Euro 2016 qualification begins this weekend and two of the top seeded teams in the draw, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy, are not the favourites to win their groups according to the Infostrada Sports’ National Team Ranking. Six of the nine groups have an overwhelming favourite to be group winner and only one of the groups looks truly competitive at this stage. We begin our assessment of the groups by looking at A to D.

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Europa League second favourites in pot 3

The 48 clubs in today’s Europa League draw have been divided into four pots based on UEFA coefficients. As explained in yesterday’s article, this can lead to misclassifications and potential groups of death. In this case, a group containing Napoli, Wolfsburg, Everton and Dynamo Moscow is possible with only two going through.

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CL draw system increases Group of Death chance

The Champions League draw pots for this evening are based on the UEFA coefficients for clubs at the end of last season. Those coefficients are based on a five year performance in European competition. In general, this system works reasonably well for teams which always participate in the Champions League or Europa League. The top three are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich for example. The problem comes with clubs who have not always been present in the previous five years. Using the Euro Club Index as an alternative, we can identify teams who have been misclassified in this year’s draw.
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