Tag Archives: Premier League

The Times’ Bill Edgar vs other models

During my trip to London this week, I picked up a copy of The Times and discovered that their resident stats man Bill Edgar had predicted the remaining 13 matches of the Premier League season for the current top-five using … Continue reading

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What wins: Expert intuition or statistical analysis?

This is a guest post by Chad Murphy (@soccermetric) Most readers of this blog probably already know, but Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) and Steve Lawrence (@SteveLawrence_) have been running a competition, comparing the accuracy of pre-season EPL predictions for a variety … Continue reading

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Why Chelsea are not (and have never been) relegation candidates

Posting odds on relegation to Twitter is guaranteed to elicit responses like “where are Chelsea?” or “what no Chelsea”. However Chelsea are not, and have never been close to being, relegation candidates this season. This is because, despite Chelsea being low … Continue reading

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Premier League rich but performs below par

The Deloitte Money League has been released and unsurprisingly, the Euro Club Index ranking, which rates clubs based on performance, is highly correlated with this annual ranking of wealth. Four of the top-five clubs on the Deloitte list are also … Continue reading

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Premier League forecasters wrong-footed

At the beginning of the 2015/2016 Premier League season, we at Scoreboard Journalism collected 92 pre-season forecasts from journalists, statistical modellers and fans. Steve Lawrence carried out an initial analysis and discovered that this season’s forecasts are way off the … Continue reading

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Hot streaks likely to push points higher than model forecasts?

Alexej Behnisch and Constantinos Chappas have both produced excellent articles over the last few days outlining Premier League predictions at approximately the halfway stage of the season. The six models contained in Alexej’s analysis have their Premier League champions this season … Continue reading

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Oxford beat Swansea – another non-existent FA Cup shock

Oxford United’s 3-2 win against Swansea City marked the first time in four years that a fourth tier team had knocked a Premier League team out of the FA Cup. In 2012, League Two club Swindon Town beat the Premier … Continue reading

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