How are your prediction skills?

The competition is now closed but you can still order David’s book and get a 10% discount with the link in this article.

Around two years ago I met, in a virtual sense, David Sumpter, a professor of mathematics at the University of Uppsala in Sweden and a football nut like myself. He was writing a book called Soccermatics, which combined his work in the field of animal behaviour and his love of football, which he generously allowed me to read and comment upon. He also used my Premier League prediction data in one chapter of his book and his publisher has kindly allowed me to reproduce the relevant passages at the link below. I can also offer a copy of David’s book to the winners of a competition which I have set further down this article and, if you would like to order a copy anyway, there is a discount code below which you can use.

Soccermatics
If you would like to buy a copy of Soccermatics, go to bloomsbury.com and enter code SOCCERMATICS25 at the checkout to receive 10% off the paperback of David Sumpter’s book.

http://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/soccermatics-9781472924148/

One chapter of Soccermatics is called “Bet against the masses” and includes an analysis of my predictions data from two seasons ago. The relevant part of the chapter can be downloaded and read by clicking here.

In order to win a copy of Soccermatics, a book which I heartily recommend, I’d like people (United Kingdom based only for this book please as it will only be sent to UK addresses) to show me their prediction skills by tweeting me their answers to the following question:

Which 6 clubs will win this season’s League One play-offs, Europa League, FA Cup, League Two play-offs, Championship play-offs, and Champions League, how many goals will be scored in these six finals and how many goals will be scored in the remaining 11 English play-off matches?

Please tweet your entry to me BEFORE the first Championship play-off semi-final kicks off on Saturday, 13 May (6:30pm CET) like this:

@simongleave Millwall, Man Utd, Chelsea, Carlisle, Reading, Real Madrid, 15, 28

Note: No entries will be accepted after 6:30pm CET on Saturday, 13 May.

The competition will be judged as follows:

  • You will be eliminated as soon as you get one of the winners wrong (the order of the finals (see below) should be the order of your entry and wrong predictions are counted from the moment the final has finished).
  • If that does not provide a winner, I will go back with those who can’t be separated and repeat the process from the last elimination.
  • If that still does not provide a winner, I will count the number (out of 6) that those who can’t be separated have correct.
  • If that still does not provide a winner, the number of goals in the finals will be used as a first tiebreaker between those who can’t be separated. This total will include goals scored in extra-time but NOT those scored in penalty shoot-outs.
  • If that still does not provide a winner, the number of goals in the 11 English play-off matches currently still to be played will be used as a final tiebreaker between those who can’t be separated. This total will include goals scored in extra-time but NOT those scored in penalty shoot-outs.

So, get predicting and good luck.

To help you, here are the six competitions in the order that the final will be played and which teams are currently still remaining in them. By the deadline date of Saturday 13 May at 6:30pm CET you will know the identities of the Europa League and Champions League finalists.

League One play-off final (Saturday 20 May, Bradford City v Millwall)
Europa League final (Wednesday 24 May, Ajax v Manchester Utd)
FA Cup Final (Saturday 27 May, Arsenal v Chelsea)
League Two play-off final (Sunday 28 May, Blackpool, Carlisle, Exeter, Luton)
Championship play-off final (Monday 29 May, Fulham, Huddersfield, Reading, Sheff Wed)
Champions League final (Saturday 3 June, Juventus v Real Madrid)

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