The simple expected points model which I talked about in an earlier post here also provides the possibility to objectively assess what the biggest surprises of the season are in the league under investigation. Currently, after 54 Eredivisie matches, there have been three in which the eventual result had less than 15% chance of happening according to the adjusted odds of the bookmakers. Two of those three matches involved PSV.
Shocks of the season (1): RKC Waalwijk 3-2 PSV
RKC Waalwijk had a 13.3% chance of beating PSV in their opening match of the season and, having conceded the first goal, one of the surprise teams of last season went on to clinch a 3-2 victory. This is still the biggest shock of this season to date.
Shock of the season (2): sc Heerenveen 1-3 ADO Den Haag
Two of the three biggest shocks of the season to date happened on the same weekend with this match being the first. Marco van Basten’s Heerenveen had drawn 2-2 at home to Ajax but were already 3-0 down to ADO within 28 minutes of the start of this match. The chance of an ADO win prior to the match was 14.4%. They had never previously won an Eredivisie match at Heerenveen.
Shock of the season (3): FC Utrecht 1-0 PSV
Despite FC Utrecht going down to 10 men with the score goalless when Anouar was red carded in the 69th minute, Dave Bulthuis scored the only goal of the match three minutes later. PSV even played the last 14 minutes (including injury time) against nine men after Alexander Gerndt’s red card. The chance of a Utrecht victory against PSV was 14.96% according to our adjusted bookmakers odds making it the third most unlikely result of the season.
Ajax’s draw at ADO Den Haag this afternoon was sixth most unlikely result in the Eredivisie this season with a 19.5% chance of happening prior to kick off. It joined two other draws this season with less than 20% chance of happening – NEC v Willem II last night and Heracles v VVV on the season’s opening weekend.