Netherlands double chances by winning Group B

The Dutch team play their final match of Group B this evening against Chile with the group winners probably playing easier second round and quarter-final matches than the team which ends as runners-up. The Infostrada Sports Forecast model has simulated both possibilities and Holland’s chances of winning the World Cup are more than doubled if they win Group B.

The rest of this article can be read at infostradalive.com by clicking this link: http://infostradalive.com/2014/06/23/analyse-this-netherlands-double-chances-by-winning-group-b

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Djokovic and Serena the Wimbledon favourites

The third Grand Slam of the year, Wimbledon, begins on Monday and the Infostrada Sports’ Forecast model agrees with the seeding commission on the favourites. Number one seed Novak Djokovic has a 37% chance of winning in London this year whilst his female equivalent Serena Williams’ chance is even higher at 40%.

 

The Infostrada Sports Forecast for tennis takes account of all ATP or WTA matches in producing a ranking for mens’ and ladies’ singles. The ranking is then corrected for the surface of the competition and the tournament is simulated 10,000 times. The current ranking does not agree with raising Andy Murray to third seed from his ATP ranking of five and the home favourite should be seeded four behind Roger Federer who should have had his seeding improved to third instead. Murray’s deserved seeding is four whilst fifth seed Stan Wawrinka is rated a lot lower than that by Forecast. There is around a 90% chance that the Wimbledon champion will be one of the top four seeds.
 

Wimbledonmen

 

You can read the rest of this article and find out how the women’s competition is assessed at infostradalive.com by clicking on this link: http://infostradalive.com/2014/06/21/analyse-this-forecast-djokovic-and-serena-the-wimbledon-favourites/

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World Cup squads perfectly illustrate the birthday paradox

Two members of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s squad, goalkeeper Asmir Begovic (27)  and defender Sead Kolasinac (21), celebrate birthdays today but what are the chances of this happening? Pretty unusual one would have thought, or not?

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What are the 2014 World Cup’s biggest shocks?

The Infostrada Sports’ Forecast model has a variety of useful functions, one of which is to provide an objective measure of which matches have delivered the biggest shocks at the World Cup so far. Of the 24 matches played so far, the results of just six in terms of a team winning or failing to win have had less than 30% chance of happening according to our Forecast.

 

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Why France (and a Group D team) are the real dark horses

Which team is the best team to fail to qualify for the 2014 World Cup? Looking at almost any ranking system provides the same answer: Ukraine. They began their World Cup qualification in England’s group but failed to qualify despite not losing either match to the English. Ukraine were then eliminated by France in the play-offs despite winning the first leg 2-0. Both of the teams that ended Ukraine’s dreams are relatively unfancied at the World Cup but could they actually be the true ‘dark horses’?

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Who should Louis drop?

Louis van Gaal names his 23-man Netherlands squad for the World Cup later today but which players should he drop? The excellent @goalimpact (goalimpact.com) has provided me with his objective ratings on the members of the Dutch squad and this seems as good a place as any to start to answer the question. Continue reading

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What is the error margin of goal line technology?

During the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Fulham on April 5, Lewis Holtby had a shot which was cleared off the line and adjudicated on by the goal line technology used by the league. Plenty of opinions were available on Twitter in the aftermath of this incident as it was so tight but none focused on the most important aspect, namely how accurate is the system? Continue reading

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