Monthly Archives: September 2012

‘The surprising Utrecht’ but how much better are they performing?

With only six Eredivisie matches played, it is still very early days to be attempting to draw conclusions but Dutch TV described FC Utrecht’s start to the season as surprising and I thought it would be interesting to use my … Continue reading

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Luck and the Dutch Cup (2): Lucky Ajax

For those of us who grew up with the FA Cup and its great romantic nature with endless replays, the third round in January, extensive all day coverage of the final etc, the KNVB Beker (Dutch Cup) comes as a … Continue reading

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Luck and the Dutch Cup (1): The story of FC Utrecht

This week is cup week in much of Europe, and here in the Netherlands the professional clubs from the Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie will play their first KNVB Beker matches of the season. A cup competition is probably the best … Continue reading

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PSV twice victims of shock results

The simple expected points model which I talked about in an earlier post here also provides the possibility to objectively assess what the biggest surprises of the season are in the league under investigation. Currently, after 54 Eredivisie matches, there have … Continue reading

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The luck of the draw strikes twice in World Cup qualification

The definition of luck is ‘success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one’s own actions’. The draw for the groups to qualify for the 2014 World Cup was made more than a year ago, nearly four months … Continue reading

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Has Van Gaal’s luck changed?

I received the following tweet from @11tegen11 after Friday evening’s 2-0 victory for the Netherlands against Turkey: Making conclusions on the match purely from that scoreline would indeed be scoreboard journalism for reasons better explained on 11tegen11’s excellent tactics blog. … Continue reading

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Why you should watch the Eredivisie (1): Talent spotting

One of my aims in beginning this blog was to bring the Eredivisie to a wider audience by convincing my readers from outside the Netherlands that the Dutch league is a competition worth watching. In order to achieve this, I … Continue reading

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Avoiding rank journalism (1): Good start for Vitesse no surprise based on the fixtures

Now that the weekend’s Eredivisie fixtures have been completed, it is worth returning to the expected points table based on the bookmakers’ assessments to see whether there are any clubs over- or underachieving at this stage. As explained in this … Continue reading

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Two expected points models for the Premier League compared

Coincidentally @the_number_game also published an expected points model this weekend in his most recent Forbes article, this time for the Premier League table. His is based on a measure called mSq£R which comes from the transfer price index mob. I thought … Continue reading

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How to avoid rank journalism: a simple expected points model

Looking at the current Eredivisie table we see RKC and Vitesse in the top four with Heerenveen down in 13th position (prior to this weekend’s fourth round of fixtures). It is, of course, early in the season and therefore too … Continue reading

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